Trump's confusing policy on Iran: Oops! He didn't wage a war to make peace!

Iran's nuclear issues have been around for over 2 decades especially since dissidents in the country revealed uranium enrichment and heavy water facilities in Natanz and Arak in 2002. While the crisis began in 2002, Iran's legitimate nuclear program started in the 1950s under the U.S "Atoms for peace" program, which provided research reactors to the Shah of Iran, who was the leader of Iran during that time.

Since the exposure of Iran's secret nuclear sites, controversy over Iran's covert nuclear enrichment has been ongoing, with Iran maintaining its right to peaceful nuclear technology while the international community has periodically restricted its program through negotiations and sanctions.

Important to note is that since the birth of the Islamic revolution in Iran in 1979, all power was vested in the Supreme Leader(Ayatollah) and his Fatwah(ruling) influences and can sometimes, override state legislation.

A Fatwah by the late Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei against the development of nuclear weapons is reported to have occurred in 2003 and since then, Iran's nuclear program has apparently been operating basing on this ruling. At the time of his death/ assassination in February 2026, the ruling had not been changed and there is no news that the current Supreme leader has changed it.

In July 2015, former U.S president Barack Obama oversaw the signing of a nuclear agreement between Iran and the P5+1 countries under the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action program(JCOPOA).  These countries include, U.S.A, China, Russia, United  Kingdom, France and Germany.

The agreement mandated that Iran reduce its nuclear stockpile, allow inspectors from the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) access to its facilities and restructure its nuclear infrastructure. This, in exchange for lifting of international sanctions and a re imposition of the UN sanctions if Iran was found to be in non compliance with the agreement.

Apparently, the agreement successfully curbed Iran's nuclear ambitions while it was fully implemented. That is, it extended Iran's time needed to produce enough material necessary for production of one nuclear bomb. Furthermore, Iran shipped out/ diluted nearly all of its enriched uranium and reduced its enrichment level to 3.67%, far below the 90% required for weapons grade material. The agreement also enhanced inspection of Iran's nuclear facilities from the IAEA.

However, president Donald Trump withdrew from the agreement in 2018 and re imposed sanctions on Tehran calling the agreement a "one sided deal that should have never, ever been made." He stated a number of reasons for his withdrawal from the agreement including its failure  to stop Iran's nuclear ambitions and ballistic missile program, among other reasons.

In retaliation over Trump's cancellation of the JCOPOA deal, Iran began enriching uranium to 60%, a level that has no credible civilian justification and subsquently, Iran also stopped the IAEA from monitoring its nuclear activities in 2022.

After failing to win a consecutive second term in office in 2020, Trump managed to return to the Whitehouse in 2024 and one of the first things he sought to do was to solve the Iran nuclear crisis, a crisis he himself created by withdrawing from the historic JCOPOA agreement. 

In June 2025, negotiations between Tehran and the Trump administration kicked off in Oman with the United States negotiating team headed by Steve Witcoff (Trump's special envoy on Middle Eastern affairs) and Jared Kushner, president Trump's son in law). Iran's team was headed by their foreign affairs minister, Seyyid Abbas Aragchi.

These talks focused on a proposal requiring Iran to halt high level uranium enrichment and permit IAEA inspectors in exchange for the lifting of economic sanctions and release of frozen funds. 

While reports indicated that both sides were nearing a deal, Israel, with full support from the USA, launched "Operation Rising Lion" on Iran. These were military strikes by Israel on Iran's military sites, nuclear facilities and command centres. This aggression also saw the assassination of a big number of  Iran's nuclear scientists and military commanders.

Subsequently on June 22, the United States conducted  "Operation Midnight Hammer"on Iran's nuclear facilities in Natanz and Fordow striking them with B-52 bombers and GBU-57 bunker buster bombs in a bid to destroy Iran's underground nuclear facilities. This was the second time Trump was undermining diplomacy in favour of military aggression on Iran's nuclear issues. This confrontation was dubbed "The 12 day war"by President Trump after he swiftly announced a ceasefire on June 23, 2025. The ceasefire was quickly announced after Iran strongly retaliated by hitting deep into Israeli territory using highly sophiscated drones and ballistic missiles in unprecedented attacks on the country.

Following this short but strong aggression on Iran and a string of fresh sanctions by the Trump administration on the country, the Islamic Republic's economy hit an unprecedented low. Inflation rose to 42.2% thereby raising the costs of living in the country. This sparked off unprecedented massive protests in the country on December 28, 2025. These demonstrations later turned into violent riots that threatened the survival of the Islamic regime, with masses calling for the ousting of the Ayatollah regime and President Trump openly urging rioters to "remain on the streets" as help from the U.S "was on the way"!

Based on reports from April 2026, president Donald Trump stated that the U.S had a hand in these demonstrations/violent riots. In a phone interview with Trey Yingst on Fox news reported on April 6, 2026, Trump said, "We sent guns to the protesters, alot of them". 

The Iranian regime however, deployed the Islamic Revolution Guard Corps(IRGC) resulting in a violent crackdown. Thousands of arrests were made and there were reports of killings and occasional executions. The regime managed to survive this plot by the U.S and Isreal to bring it down using popular uprising.

In February 2026,the U.S and Iran once again held high stakes indirect negotiations in Oman, mediated by Omani officials. These were aimed at addressing nuclear, regional and missile issues. During these talks, core issues of negotiations shifted from Iran's nuclear program to its ballistic missile program. According to the Iranians, the addition of their missile program into the talks was a red line that they could not take as it is a legitimate right for every sovereign country to have defensive military capabilities. With talks highly influenced by Prime minister Benjamin Netanyahu who openly opposes the idea of peace talks with Iran, this looked like a ploy to try and make the talks fail. It was Netanyahu's call to the Americans to stick on curbing Iran's missile program during the talks. This, after Iran's missiles properly punished Isreal for its aggression on Iran back in June, 2025. 

Indeed, the talks were bound to fail as no power or threat can convince a country like Iran to drop its ballistic missile program especially after the missiles' commendable performance during the 12 day war. 

The talks in Oman took place amid significant regional tension, with a significant U.S military build up and threats of strikes on Iran by Mr. Trump if no deal was reached. While talks were going on, The U.S deployed a number of naval assets and destroyers in the Gulf region including the US aircraft carrier Abraham Lincoln.

The US aircraft carrier, USS Abraham Lincoln deployed in the Middle East in the middle of high stakes talks between the United States and Iran.

The talks, described as a "good start" but producing no immediate breakthough, aimed to prevent military escalation while addressing Washington's demand for a comprehensive deal. The initial indirect negotiations occurred on February 6, 2026 in Muscat with follow up discussions planned in other locations including Geneva. 

Then boom! "Operation Epic Fury" was launched on Iran! This operation began on the 28th of February, 2026 with a set of clear objectives set by the U.S. That is, to destroy Iran's offensive missile capability, destroy Iran's missile production capabilities, destroy Iran's Navy and other security infrascture and finally,ensure that Iran "will never have nuclear weapons". Also an undeclared ulterior motive was to topple/ weaken the Islamic regime and install in its place a submissive regime that would bow to every American-Israeli demand.

This was evidenced in the first attacks of the Epic Fury on February 28, 2026 that saw the assassination of Iran's long time Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei along with most of his commanding generals.

Former Supreme Leader of Iran, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, assassinated on February 28, 2026 in a joint US-Israeli military Operation on Iran.

As the war raged on, U.S.A and Israel widened the scale of their operations on Iran to targeting schools, hospitals, universities, oil facilities and other civilian infrastructure with President Trump also threatening to strike Iran's energy and transport infrastructure. During the war, Trump also mulled over capturing Iran's Kharg island which harbors 90% of Iran's oil storage facilities. He also threatened to hit Iran back to the stone age if it did not capitulate to his demands.

Graves of over 160 school girls who were brutally killed by the United States when their school was struck by Tomahawk missiles during the early days of operation Epic Fury.

However, Iran bravely fought back by hitting whichever country in the Middle East that harbours U.S military assets. Iran hit U.S interests in Saudi Arabia, Qatar, Iraq, United Arab Emirates, among other Gulf countries. Consenquently, over 13 U.S military bases in the Gulf and Middle East were damaged by Iran's ballistic missiles and a number of oil facilities in the Gulf region. Israel got a good share of Iran's missiles too. Moreso, as part of its retaliation , Iran effectively closed the strait of Hormus, a strategic water way through which 40% of global oil is shipped.

With the war not going his way after 40 days of end to end bomb and missile attacks, Mr. Trump halted the latest military campaign on Iran, announcing on the 23rd of March, 2026 that the United States and Iran were ceasing fire and discussing an end to the war. He once again gave an indication that he was going back to the negotiation table after abandoning it for the 100th time.

High level talks were again set up between the United States and Iran in Islamabad, Pakistan in an attempt to end the six week conflict. Mediated by Pakistan officials that is; Pakistan prime minister Shehbaz Sharif and powerful army chief Asif Munir, the talks focused on a truce and Iran's nuclear program but failed to produce an immediate deal. Representing the U.S this time was vice president J.D Vance, Steve Witcoff and Jared Kushner. Iran's chief negotiators were Iran's speaker of Parliament Mohammed Bagheri Ghalibaf and foreign affairs minister, Abbas Aragchi.

To the world's surprise, amidst the negotiations, the U.S imposed a naval blockade on all Iran's ports in a bid to stop Iran's oil exports and imports of needed commodities in their country. The United States further more imposed a string of sanctions targeting Iran's oil industry and it's crypto currency network, in a move that was dubbed , "Operation economic fury." Apparently, this move was meant to cripple Iran's economy so badly and force them to surrender to Mr.Trump's demands. However, this was perceived by Iranians as an act of war in the middle of negotiations with Iran threatening to abandon the negotiations if the U.S did not lift its naval blockade on Iran. Infact, the Iranians halted direct talks with the United States as a protest act against the imposition of a naval blockade on Iran's ports in the midst of negotiations. Indeed, with the adamancy and arrogance of the Trump adminstration, the U.S tightened the blockade even further hence leading to failure of the latest round of talks.

Recently, Trump said that he would continue to systematically weaken Iran until it capitulates to U.S demands. Perhaps this is the reason behind the U.S sustained attacks on Iran's military targets even during a ceasefire and apparent negotiations to completely halt the war between the U.S and Iran. 

With no immediate end to hostilities in the near future, it looks like Trump's continuous talk of an imminent deal is nothing but a cliche meant to manipulate oil markets.  One day he assures the world that a deal is getting closer, the other day, he launches military strikes on Iran! It looks like Mr. Trump and the U.S did not deploy the best of their military assets in the Gulf region to make peace with anyone!